Energy affordability – particularly electricity affordability – has become a top-tier issue for voters and policymakers. U.S. electricity prices have risen 32% over the past five years and relief – at least immediate relief – is hard to see. Sharply rising power demand and surging natural gas prices are only adding headwinds to an already challenging moment.

Wholesale natural gas prices have jumped more than 70% in the past 12 months with the U.S. benchmark price racing above $5.25 this December, the highest it has been since December of 2022 during the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Soaring U.S. LNG exports appear to be increasingly influencing domestic natural gas prices.

With natural gas both the leading fuel for home heating and electricity generation, the sharp rise in gas prices is going to sting. For every dollar increase in natural gas, U.S. consumers pay on average $34 billion more for gas and $20 billion more for electricity, or $54 billion annually.

If there’s good news to be found for consumers, it’s with the coal fleet and the administration’s efforts to stop premature plant closings. As gas prices have risen over the past year, coal generation has come to the rescue, taking market share from natural gas and alleviating pressure on ratepayers.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal generation is up 13% through the end of September compared to last year while gas generation is down. Utilization of the coal fleet is rising quickly. Last year, the fleet ran at just 42% of its capacity. This year, it’s already at 50% with bitter cold and high gas prices now shaping the marketplace. Expect the coal fleet’s capacity utilization to continue to climb.

The dispatchable fuel optionality underpinned by coal capacity allows utilities to shift away from higher priced gas when prices rise, reducing the burden on consumers.

Policy Choices

The availability of the coal fleet to ramp up power when demand spikes and cushion costs is a matter of policy. And on the policy front, when it comes to affordability and reliability, the Trump administration is delivering.

The Obama and Biden-era regulatory assaults on the coal fleet have meant less dispatchable capacity on the grid and far less fuel optionality. For too many consumers, like those in New England or Florida, where coal capacity has been pushed off the grid, there is no relief from soaring gas prices. But in electricity markets where the fleet remains, coal capacity can be the proverbial affordability cavalry coming to the rescue.

The Trump administration’s efforts to pause the prior administrations’ regulatory assault and keep essential coal plants on the grid is saving consumers and providing desperately needed reinforcement to the nation’s teetering grid reliability. With affordability today’s buzzword, it’s easy to overlook the reliability crisis the administration inherited.

Just this fall, Jim Robb, president of the North American Electricity Reliability Corp. (NERC), called the nation’s grid reliability a “five-alarm fire.” And NERC’s recent winter reliability assessment only underscored the challenge. According to the assessment, much of the country could face electricity supply emergencies from severe winter storms. There simply is not enough dispatchable generating capacity where it’s needed most.

Further coal plant losses – as the Biden administration was forcing, regardless of countless reliability warnings – would have made today’s affordability and reliability challenges untenable.

With power demand set to jump by more than 100 gigawatts in a decade driven largely by the AI-data center boom, and U.S. LNG export capacity poised to double by 2028, electricity affordability and reliability may well run through coal country. Fortunately, the Trump administration recognizes it.